THE ICE HAS BROKEN (contd)

There are three main reasons for the thawing of ties. By far the most important of them is American pressure: Washington desperately wants the two South Asian nuclear powers to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott has met Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh several times in recent months to discuss the regional nuclear issue. The word is that New Delhi may sign the CTBT in May, ahead of the September deadline for the treaty to come into effect - provided it is signed by all the nations on the list. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dropped its opposition to a $210-million World Bank loan to India, which marks a partial lifting of the sanctions that were put in place after last year's nuclear tests. Pakistan has said it will sign the CTBT if India does.

The second reason for the new-found chumminess is the domestic political instability in both countries. Vajpayee's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) heads a fractious and ideologically disparate coalition government - one that has become even more fragile following the withdrawal of a minor coalition partner on the day of the bus trip. In November, the BJP lost three key state assembly polls - the party's first electoral defeat since it came to power in March last year.

But by playing statesman and trying to repair ties with Pakistan, Vajpayee may have regained some lost ground - and possibly even struck a chord among Indian Muslims, who have traditionally shunned the BJP for its anti-minority tendencies. The support of the Muslims, who comprise 15% of the total population and often vote as a bloc, is crucial for winning elections in India. Even a slight Muslim swing in its favor would improve the BJP's political fortunes considerably.

Sharif also has to contend with the rise of the religious right, notably the militant Jamaat-e-Islami party, which claims to be the true defender of Islam and opposes any friendly ties with India. An hour before Vajpayee arrived in Lahore from Wahga to attend a banquet, some 3,000 Jamaat activists clashed with police, leaving one policeman dead and at least 100 people injured. The protesters damaged much public and private property, including the cars of several Western ambassadors on their way to the banquet.